Analytics
Why NIW petitions fail
Updated with decisions published up to 2026-08-21. Numbers change as new decisions are added.
Appeals decided on the merits (sustained, remanded or dismissed) under the current three-prong test, from Dec 27, 2016.
Read these as patterns in denied cases, not approval odds. Every appeal here was first denied by USCIS; approved petitions never reach the appeals office. Tags are automated from decision text.
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Draft your petition around these objections
Draft builds a petition letter outline from your case profile, with a list of the objections raised most often in your field to address before you file.
See it on a sample caseKey findings
- 36%
of these appeals failed on Prong 1, merit and national importance: more than on any other part of the test.
- 53%
raised “Past record does not show influence or success”, the most common objection.
Decisions per year
Sustained and remanded, % of decisions
Years with 5+ decisions
Which prong the AAO found not met
From the appeals office's own findings; a decision can fail more than one, and many stop at the first. 3 with unclear wording on a prong are left out of it.
- Step 044%
- Prong 13436%
- Prong 23133%
- Prong 366%
What the Director's denial rested on
From the denial being appealed, as the decision reports it. 52 decisions don't say which part specifically.
- Step 088%
- Prong 12425%
- Prong 22122%
- Prong 32223%
Most common objections
Share of decisions in scope where the objection was found. Click one for examples.
- 53%50 decisions
- 34%32 decisions
- 32%30 decisions
- 27%26 decisions
- 25%24 decisions
- 25%24 decisions
- 24%23 decisions
- 16%15 decisions
- 8%8 decisions
- 8%8 decisions
- 8%8 decisions
- 5%5 decisions
- 4%4 decisions
- 4%4 decisions
- 3%3 decisions
- 3%3 decisions
- 2%2 decisions
- 2%2 decisions
- 2%2 decisions
- 2%2 decisions
- 1%1 decisions
Evidence discussed: wins vs losses
% of sustained+remanded vs % of dismissed decisions that discuss each kind of evidence. Discussion is not proof it helped.
- Citations89%61%
- Publications86%64%
- Peer review61%44%
- STEM policy50%41%
- Grants & funding25%31%
- Patents6%14%
- Support letters67%78%
- Government interest14%29%
- Business plan0%19%
- Awards25%44%
- Media44%66%
- Job creation11%46%
Outcomes by field
Sustained + remanded share, all fields (NIW merits appeals, post-Dhanasar)
- 6.4%1,458 decisions
- 12.8%523 decisions
- 11.1%423 decisions
- 10.8%408 decisions
- 12.7%197 decisions
- 8.6%152 decisions
- 8.1%111 decisions
- 37.9%95 decisions
- 17.0%88 decisions
- 26.5%68 decisions
- 9.1%55 decisions
- 26.9%52 decisions
- 10.0%40 decisions
- 9.7%31 decisions
Career stage mentioned
Sustained + remanded share
- Postdoc57.6%33 decisions
- Professor23.1%26 decisions
- Entrepreneur25.0%8 decisions
- Ph.D. student16.7%6 decisions
Authorities cited most
- Dhanasar8488%
- Chawathe8084%
- Christo's7781%
- USCIS Policy Manual5760%
- L-A-C-2324%
- M-P-1011%
- NYSDOT99%
- Katigbak66%
- Caron44%
- Ho44%
- E-M-33%
- O-R-E-33%
Countries named in NIW decisions
A name is not a nationality: it can be where the petitioner studied or worked, or part of the argument. Open a country to read the sentences.
Named most often
- 865decisions
- 103decisions
- 88decisions
- 70decisions
- 62decisions
- 58decisions
- 56decisions
- 52decisions
- 51decisions
- 46decisions
112 countries in all. Drag the globe to turn it; select a country to search for it.