Analytics
Why NIW petitions fail
Updated with decisions published up to 2026-08-21. Numbers change as new decisions are added.
Appeals decided on the merits (sustained, remanded or dismissed) under the current three-prong test, from Dec 27, 2016.
Read these as patterns in denied cases, not approval odds. Every appeal here was first denied by USCIS; approved petitions never reach the appeals office. Tags are automated from decision text.
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Draft your petition around these objections
Draft builds a petition letter outline from your case profile, with a list of the objections raised most often in your field to address before you file.
See it on a sample caseKey findings
- 77%
of these appeals failed on Prong 1, merit and national importance: more than on any other part of the test.
- 74%
raised “Job creation or economic claims unsupported”, the most common objection.
Decisions per year
Sustained and remanded, % of decisions
Years with 5+ decisions
Which prong the AAO found not met
From the appeals office's own findings; a decision can fail more than one, and many stop at the first. 28 with unclear wording on a prong are left out of it.
- Step 022515%
- Prong 11,11877%
- Prong 2816%
- Prong 3292%
What the Director's denial rested on
From the denial being appealed, as the decision reports it. 535 decisions don't say which part specifically.
- Step 028620%
- Prong 161942%
- Prong 221515%
- Prong 330421%
Most common objections
Share of decisions in scope where the objection was found. Click one for examples.
- 74%1,072 decisions
- 55%798 decisions
- 40%586 decisions
- 26%385 decisions
- 19%273 decisions
- 18%266 decisions
- 17%247 decisions
- 14%199 decisions
- 13%196 decisions
- 13%187 decisions
- 12%172 decisions
- 11%162 decisions
- 10%150 decisions
- 8%119 decisions
- 7%108 decisions
- 7%99 decisions
- 7%95 decisions
- 5%69 decisions
- 3%42 decisions
- 2%25 decisions
- 2%25 decisions
- 1%21 decisions
Evidence discussed: wins vs losses
% of sustained+remanded vs % of dismissed decisions that discuss each kind of evidence. Discussion is not proof it helped.
- Peer review5%1%
- Grants & funding3%1%
- Citations10%8%
- Publications8%8%
- Patents0%1%
- Awards10%13%
- STEM policy5%11%
- Government interest11%23%
- Support letters40%59%
- Media44%74%
- Business plan27%61%
- Job creation27%78%
Outcomes by field
Sustained + remanded share, all fields (NIW merits appeals, post-Dhanasar)
- 6.4%1,458 decisions
- 12.8%523 decisions
- 11.1%423 decisions
- 10.8%408 decisions
- 12.7%197 decisions
- 8.6%152 decisions
- 8.1%111 decisions
- 37.9%95 decisions
- 17.0%88 decisions
- 26.5%68 decisions
- 9.1%55 decisions
- 26.9%52 decisions
- 10.0%40 decisions
- 9.7%31 decisions
Career stage mentioned
Sustained + remanded share
- Entrepreneur3.8%756 decisions
- Professor3.6%137 decisions
- Postdoc20.0%5 decisions
- Ph.D. student50.0%2 decisions
Authorities cited most
- Dhanasar1,31290%
- Chawathe1,28388%
- Christo's1,16980%
- L-A-C-97267%
- USCIS Policy Manual43330%
- Caron19714%
- NYSDOT17112%
- Ho14710%
- E-M-14510%
- Katigbak1339%
- Burbano1037%
- Izummi977%
Countries named in NIW decisions
A name is not a nationality: it can be where the petitioner studied or worked, or part of the argument. Open a country to read the sentences.
Named most often
- 865decisions
- 103decisions
- 88decisions
- 70decisions
- 62decisions
- 58decisions
- 56decisions
- 52decisions
- 51decisions
- 46decisions
112 countries in all. Drag the globe to turn it; select a country to search for it.