Analytics
Why NIW petitions fail
Updated with decisions published up to 2026-08-21. Numbers change as new decisions are added.
Appeals decided on the merits (sustained, remanded or dismissed) under the current three-prong test, from Dec 27, 2016.
Read these as patterns in denied cases, not approval odds. Every appeal here was first denied by USCIS; approved petitions never reach the appeals office. Tags are automated from decision text.
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Draft your petition around these objections
Draft builds a petition letter outline from your case profile, with a list of the objections raised most often in your field to address before you file.
See it on a sample caseKey findings
- 38%
of these appeals failed on Prong 1, merit and national importance: more than on any other part of the test.
- 42%
raised “Past record does not show influence or success”, the most common objection.
Decisions per year
Sustained and remanded, % of decisions
Years with 5+ decisions
Which prong the AAO found not met
From the appeals office's own findings; a decision can fail more than one, and many stop at the first. 1 with unclear wording on a prong are left out of it.
- Step 024%
- Prong 12038%
- Prong 21427%
- Prong 324%
What the Director's denial rested on
From the denial being appealed, as the decision reports it. 25 decisions don't say which part specifically.
- Step 024%
- Prong 11427%
- Prong 21121%
- Prong 31325%
Most common objections
Share of decisions in scope where the objection was found. Click one for examples.
- 42%22 decisions
- 31%16 decisions
- 31%16 decisions
- 27%14 decisions
- 27%14 decisions
- 25%13 decisions
- 21%11 decisions
- 15%8 decisions
- 13%7 decisions
- 13%7 decisions
- 13%7 decisions
- 12%6 decisions
- 10%5 decisions
- 10%5 decisions
- 6%3 decisions
- 4%2 decisions
- 4%2 decisions
- 4%2 decisions
- 2%1 decisions
- 2%1 decisions
- 2%1 decisions
- 2%1 decisions
Evidence discussed: wins vs losses
% of sustained+remanded vs % of dismissed decisions that discuss each kind of evidence. Discussion is not proof it helped.
- STEM policy57%34%
- Citations79%61%
- Peer review36%21%
- Grants & funding36%26%
- Government interest36%34%
- Publications57%58%
- Patents7%11%
- Awards7%21%
- Media36%50%
- Business plan0%16%
- Job creation29%47%
- Support letters57%76%
Outcomes by field
Sustained + remanded share, all fields (NIW merits appeals, post-Dhanasar)
- 6.4%1,458 decisions
- 12.8%523 decisions
- 11.1%423 decisions
- 10.8%408 decisions
- 12.7%197 decisions
- 8.6%152 decisions
- 8.1%111 decisions
- 37.9%95 decisions
- 17.0%88 decisions
- 26.5%68 decisions
- 9.1%55 decisions
- 26.9%52 decisions
- 10.0%40 decisions
- 9.7%31 decisions
Career stage mentioned
Sustained + remanded share
- Postdoc35.7%14 decisions
- Professor28.6%14 decisions
- Ph.D. student0.0%3 decisions
- Entrepreneur50.0%2 decisions
Authorities cited most
- Dhanasar4179%
- Chawathe3567%
- Christo's3363%
- USCIS Policy Manual2446%
- L-A-C-1835%
- NYSDOT1223%
- Katigbak713%
- Izummi612%
- Ho510%
- Caron510%
- Burbano36%
- M-P-36%
Countries named in NIW decisions
A name is not a nationality: it can be where the petitioner studied or worked, or part of the argument. Open a country to read the sentences.
Named most often
- 865decisions
- 103decisions
- 88decisions
- 70decisions
- 62decisions
- 58decisions
- 56decisions
- 52decisions
- 51decisions
- 46decisions
112 countries in all. Drag the globe to turn it; select a country to search for it.